Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
