It was eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as the Villa manager berated him for not reading a through-ball. At that point, as the club endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were a symptom or the source of Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was entirely much more joyous. When Rogers drilled in his second strike to restore his side's advantage, the Spanish tactician tore off his coat, opened his arms and bellowed. Villa were on their way to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
Per Opta, twice all season has the team posted an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has strung together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans seem curiously susceptible – but right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. This was the case away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and again against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean might be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball into the top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker might resume finding the net regularly.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
However, this was unforeseen. Few believed Villa would be in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. As Rogers stood in front of the Villa faithful after the match orchestrating the applause, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
